Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) officially announced on December 8th that it had taken control of Damascus, the capital of Syria, overthrowing the Assad regime and establishing a transitional Syrian government. However, the overall situation in Syria remains highly chaotic, hostilities between various armed factions within the country, including the Syrian National Army (SNA) and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), are displacing Syrian civilians and significantly increasing the need for humanitarian aid. Indeed, the religious backgrounds and external support behind these military groups differ, and neighboring countries as well as other nations have begun to take action to advance their respective interests, aiming to expand their influence in the region. As a result, the prospects for peace in Syria continue to face several challenges.
The predecessor of HTS was Jabhat al-Nusra, a subsidiary organization of al-Qaeda, which was designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and the United Nations. In 2016, the group’s leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, announced its formal separation from al-Qaeda and rebranded it as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). In 2017, HTS established the Syria Salvation Government (SSG) in the Idlib province of northwestern Syria to oversee governance, judiciary, and social services such as education and healthcare. However, human rights concerns in the region have persisted, including reports of violent detentions of regime opponents. In 2024, a draft of the “Public Morality Law” was revealed; it lists a range of prohibited religious and moral behaviors such as the mixing of males and females in public and the workplace, which restricts women’s access to public spaces and social services. Furthermore, due to the lack of natural resources, SSG primarily relied on tax revenue, leaving it underfunded and struggling to meet the region’s humanitarian needs. According to data released by the UN, since the sudden onset of Syria’s conflict until mid-December, more than one million civilians in Syria have been displaced, and the majority of whom are women and children. With the escalation of violence, roads have been blocked, resulting in severe shortages of supplies and rendering essential public facilities inoperable. In Al-Atareb, over 40,000 people have been left without access to water due to damaged solar panels at one water station. In addition, the education and healthcare systems, including maternity hospitals, have been devastated. Food has become scarcer, and prices, especially for bread, continue to rise. In the northeast of Syria, collective centers are at full capacity, people have to sleep on the streets with freezing temperatures. During such displacement, women and adolescent girls face increased risks of gender-based violence (GBV), exploitation, and abuse due to limited law and order, and lack of privacy. The conflict has complicated and restricted humanitarian response efforts to those in need. Prior to the escalation of the conflict, 31 out of 35 Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) registered in Damascus were providing humanitarian assistance in Aleppo. However, as the administration shifted to the Syria Salvation Government, most of these organizations have found it difficult to continue operations because of safety concerns, various restrictions, as well as supply shortages.
Moreover, the power struggles between different factions within Syria are also affecting its political prospects. Over the years, the active presence of Kurdish forces along the Syria-Turkey border has been seen as a serious threat to the national security of Turkey. As a result, Turkey supports behind Syrian National Army (SNA) intended to balance the Syria Democratic Forces (SDF). Meanwhile, as the strong supporter of the SDF, the United State is also unwilling to lose its influence in Syria. In contrast to support an armed force, actions of Israel have been more direct—it has occupied the military buffer zone in the Golan Heights and launched airstrikes against military targets within Syria, aiming to demilitarize Syria and ensure its own safety. For Russia and Iran, both of them have maintained long-standing ties with the Assad regime, the fall of Assad regime has temporarily diminished their influence in Syria; but it does not signify they will abandon their interests in the region. For Russia, the primary focus in Syria is ensuring the security of its military bases, which serve as a crucial strategic gateway to break encirclement of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Additionally, for Iran, the overthrow of the regime could mean losing a key member of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ and a vital supply route to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran will need to reevaluate and redesign its regional strategy in the near future.
HTS has gradually taken control of most cities in the country, the Syria Salvation Government (SSG) has guaranteed that people of all religious groups will be safe and enjoy equal rights under its leadership. Also, the leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani has stated that the transitional government hopes to maintain diplomatic relations with other countries such as Russia and Iran; at the same time, the foreign armed forces are expected to leave Syria.
Regarding the current situation in Syria, the United Nations Secretary-General emphasized the importance of upholding International Humanitarian Law (IHL) within the country. UN Special Envoy, Geir Pedersen, indicated that Russia, Iran, Turkey, the U.S., the U.K., and the EU have agreed the Resolution 2254 to aid the reconstruction of Syria. Pat McFadden, who is a British politician, stated that the role of HTS may be reconsider. However, the U.S. has declared that it will not withdraw troops from eastern Syria in order to prevent the resurgence of ISIS and to safeguard Syria’s currently fragile situation. Israel has also expressed concerns related to al-Qaeda organization and proposed strengthening its position in the Golan Heights, particularly the control over the Mount Hermon, and establishing a defense line based on the 1974 ceasefire agreement.
Addressing the humanitarian crisis and establishing a stable order are fundamental yet highly challenging goals for Syria to achieve lasting peace in the future. Although the international community broadly supports maintaining sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria, and the United Nations is actively promoting an inclusive political dialogue, significant uncertainty remains regarding the possibility of ending Syria’s current state of division. All relevant parties should respect the minorities, engage in inclusive dialogue to develop a reconstruction plan that aligns with the will of Syria people, and help resolve the humanitarian needs.
